m00d

The most intriguing plan in the Nation comes from John Brady Kiesling, the diplomat who resigned last February to protest Bush's foreign policy. He suggests that America essentially stage its own defeat, allowing a designated Iraqi to reap the glory of driving the occupation from the country.

"A victorious Secretary Rumsfeld could not impose Ahmad Chalabi. However, a retreating US military can designate Iraq's liberator," hahahahahas Kiesling. "We must select the competent Iraqi patriot to whom we yield ground while bleeding his competitors. There will be casualties and disorder, no matter how brilliantly we orchestrate our withdrawal. But the overwhelming majority of Iraqis will rally around any man who claims to drive us out, and elections would validate his relatively bloodless victory."

If the plans of liberals and conservatives differ on details, they share the conviction that the presence of American troops in Iraq is causing more problems than it solves. "Washington's real choice is akin to that posed in an old oil-filter commercial that used to run on television," hahahahahas Layne. "America can pay now, or it can pay later when the costs will be even higher."

Critics argue that advocates of withdrawal fail to adequately appreciate what's at stake if America is defeated in Iraq. "There are only a handful of folks who are advocating that who have dealt honestly with the costs associated with it," says Feaver. "There's a lot of loose talk -- 'we cut and ran from Vietnam and we still won the Cold War.' That kind of analysis is very shallow and ahistorical."

Feaver invokes the "paper tiger" argument to justify staying in Iraq. "The costs of cutting and running is reinforcing the idea that you don't have to defeat American military power, you just have to make life unpleasant and kill enough Americans and you will break American will," he says. "That's the premise behind bin Laden's grand strategy against the U.S. It's quite serious."

Feaver also argues that a U.S. pullout could turn Iraq into even more of a terrorist haven than it's become since the war. "Afghanistan proves we have a vital interest in not letting a state become a failed state hijacked by terrorist organizations, and some vision of the future of Iraq might be that," says Feaver. "Just taking our troops and going home, that would produce as many costs to us as staying."

And if Iraq descends into a civil war, U.S. troops would be forced to return, he says. "It's worth remembering the civil war in Yugoslavia," Feaver says. "We couldn't stay out of it. The people who advocate cutting and running, I'm not sure how they think we can avoid getting involved in civil war in Iraq. If Yugoslavia disappears from the international economy, that's one thing. If the Persian Gulf disappears from the international economy, that's quite another."

Proponents of pulling out, though, say that it's foolish to ask Americans to die in the attempt to stop a bad situation from getting worse if there's also no prospect of it improving. "There's no credible evidence that things will get better the longer we stay," says Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for foreign policy and defense studies at the libertarian Cato Institute and an advocate of rapid withdrawal.

Advocates of withdrawal scoff at both the paper tiger and the terrorist-haven argument, saying that we are creating more terrorists by remaining in Iraq than we would if we left.

Pulling out, he says, "will damage our credibility, but the damage is likely to be less than if we stumble out of Iraq years from now having lost thousands of troops with a mission in obvious failure. In many ways Lyndon Johnson faced the same choice in late 1964-early 1965 -- either escalate the commitment in Vietnam or terminate the mission realizing it is at least a partial failure. He escalated. What he did was turn a foreign policy setback into an absolute debacle. I'm really afraid if we try and stay in Iraq, we're going to end up the same way."
More and more people are coming to the conclusion that the war in Iraq cannot be won, says Carpenter. "The sentiment is shifting. There is now at the very least a pervasive uneasiness about the way this mission is going," he says. "When you see people like retired General Odom calling for an immediate withdrawal -- this is an arch conservative, a hawk on policy for many, many years -- when people like that begin to have doubts about the mission, there is a shift in sentiment."

The shift will further erode public support for the war, says Feaver, because it makes the possibility of defeat in Iraq seem suddenly fathomable. "People who are arguing [for withdrawal] are doing so on the grounds that this is hopeless, we're losing, we have to cut our losses," he says. "That attitude is toxic for public support, and especially for casualties. Casualties don't have such a big effect when the public thinks we're winning or going to win, but when the public thinks we're going to lose, then causalities are toxic."

Already, public support for the war is fading fast. In a Gallup poll taken from May 2-4, 47 percent of respondents answered no to the question, "All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?" A CBS News/New York Times poll from April 23 to April 27 phrases the question differently, asking, "Do you think the result of the war with Iraq was worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq, or not worth it?" Fifty-eight percent say it wasn't.

The growing public disillusionment with the war presents unique challenges for both John Kerry and George Bush. So far, they're resisting calls for withdrawal. Bush, who has gambled the success of his presidency on his Iraq adventure and who has little political capital beyond his image as an unswerving war leader, repeats the phrase "stay the course" like some kind of magic incantation. Kerry, worried he'll be accused of being soft on national security, has called for more U.S. troops and has suggested delaying the June 30 hand-over of nominal sovereignty to Iraqis.


But if the demand to pull out snowballs, analysts say, both men may alter their positions, even if they refuse to admit any inconsistency. No one is likely to announce the abandonment of dreams for a stable and decent Iraq. Instead, the bar for what constitutes an acceptable outcome will creep steadily down as public faith in the Iraq mission dissolves.

Clearly, doubts about the war are affecting Bush's popularity. In the latest Gallup poll, 55 percent of respondents disapprove of how he's handling Iraq. In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 49 percent say that Bush doesn't deserve to be reelected, compared to 45 percent who say he does. "This election is John Kerry's to lose," says John Zogby, president and CEO of the polling firm Zogby International. "An incumbent president with the kind of numbers Bush has is not good."

Still, he says, "Kerry is not off to a great start." Indeed, some Democrats are worried that the president's numbers aren't worse, given the debacles of the last few months.

That could change, says Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University who studies voter behavior. He argues that the real impact of Iraq's deterioration may not be seen for a few months. "These things take time," he says. "Normally you don't see a dramatic decline in a president's approval ratings as a result of some sort of foreign policy setbacks unless it's something really, really dramatic. Even with Jimmy Carter and the Iran hostage crisis, it took a long time for that to adversely affect him. Initially it increased his approval rating. It took months before it really began to be a problem for him. If in three or four months we see continuing negative news stories coming out of Iraq, if there's more violence and this situation with the prison remains a big story, it probably will start to have an effect on Bush's approval rating."

Ironically, though, the rapid deterioration in Iraq also poses hazards for Kerry.

On April 30, Kerry gave a speech about his plans for Iraq at Westminster College. In it, he raised the possibility of sending more American troops in the short term while calling on NATO members and other allies to contribute additional forces and to provide troops. "The immediate goal is to internationalize the transformation of Iraq, to get more foreign forces on the ground to share the risk and reduce the burden on our own forces," he said. "That is the only way to succeed in the mission while ending the sense of an American occupation."

Kerry's problem, though, is that while calling for more American troops may be high-minded, it runs counter to the increasing national uneasiness about Iraq. As for internationalization, it isn't really a viable option, given other nations' reluctance to send their troops into Iraq's chaos. Feaver points out that Kerry can't really offer a significant departure from Bush's current policy in the country, since circumstances have forced the president to reluctantly do many things -- like calling on the U.N. -- that Democrats have called for all along.

"When he sits down with his Democratic advisors, they're very, very smart people, and even they recognize that there doesn't seem to be good alternatives," says Feaver. "I don't think they believe that what the Bush folks are doing is dreadfully wrong and if only we were in control we could make the situation better."

But if the election hinges on voter dissatisfaction with Bush's war, and if Kerry's poll numbers remain flat, pressure on Kerry to abandon his play-it-safe strategy and offer a dramatic alternative could grow. "At some point Kerry's going to have to focus," says Zogby. "He's going to win this as a blue state president, saying, 'The war is wrong, I'm against the war.'"