The Lakers, as good as they are, won't beat the Spurs. They can't stop penetration by Parker, regardless of who they put on him. Parker is one of the fastest players in the league, and the aging Payton and Fisher stand no chance. Bowen provides Kobe with as much as he can handle, showing in his 7-17 shooting in game 2. That really leaves Shaq as the only offensive firepower, but that can't win the game. Shaq scored 32 in the game 2 loss, just to prove this point.
It all starts with the point, and Payton just isn't used to the triangle offense. Like the commentators were saying during the game, Payton's competetiveness is actually a negative in the triangle. When Payton gets scored on, he wants to take it back at that man, and make him play 'D', but the triangle with Kobe & Shaq doesn't really allow that. As a Sonics fan, and Seattle native, we watched Payton do that for years here, and now he can't.
Anyways, just my
on the whole series, and I think it will be over in 5.