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I doubt that the market will ever be saturated because of the following factors:
a) market churn: people look for new content, new niches, people get tired of old or trite content and move on to differing sites.
b) market prequalification factor: while I'm sure a lot of people that feel they got burned by crappy content would never sign up for a paysite again, there are still a lot that found the experience interesting enough to sign up for others. These are "prequalified" consumers and their numbers should cumulative thereby ensuring that there's a large consumer pool out there.
c) the Internet is still expanding its reach to differing demographics. self-explanatory.
d) old ways of marketing are giving way to marketing science. Marketing is a discipline. It doesn't involve just pasting banners or lame text and expecting to get conversions. As more ex-dotcommers with marketing skills cross over to adult content and adult site veterans hone their marketing skills, you will see a major change in marketing techniques. The affiliate model is both good and bad because it depends on the marketing skills of the LL/TGP/AVS/PP submitter. What this means is that there will be more people signing up--but through less and less webmasters as the adult surfer becomes more sophisticated and gravitates towards tried and true marketing approaches [using traditional marketing disciplines --text strategies, interruption model, etc. ]
That's my 2 centavos, senor!
[This message has been edited by pimplink (edited 08-23-2001).]
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