Remember exxxotica that these paysites don't give a fuck about you -- they care about money.
If,
10 webmasters can make me $50,000, and
100 webmasters can make me $100,000, and
1000 webmasters can make me $200,000...
Then fuck those first 10 webmasters -- I want my $200,000... See the thinking?
There are advantages and disadvantages to both ways of doing business... which is pretty self-evident... it's pretty much a given that if you open your doors to every webmaster on the planet you will make more money. I'd like to think that I could run a successful program someday soon that would be a little more exclusive -- because I believe that it's important to know the people that you are giving money to -- that loyalty and friendship is more important than short-term profits -- and I think in the long run I'd rather be sharing drinks on my yacht w/ the same people that I started with -- talking about all the good times we've had over the years building something together.
I keep an eye on my trades -- I see what my boys are pushing and I try to push other programs -- also I tend to avoid linking sites that are pushing something too hard that I am already pushing hard. I try to find obscure programs to link and exclusive deals. In the end though I look at the quality of the site I am pushing. I don't care how well it converts -- if I wouldn't sign up as a surfer -- or if the program doesn't interest *me* then I don't push it.
The first thing I do when I visit a webmaster program page -- I check out the "sites" link -- if they don't have a site that I would sign up for -- I don't even bother ever sending traffic to that program. That excludes about 95% of the programs out there on the net ;)
In the end because of this there are surfers that will respect you and become fans of your site and your recommendations... I think your website should be an extension of your personality, tastes, desires, blah. You end up attracting surfers that like the same shit that you like. I think that's one way to be successful.
Anyway new programs may convert better, but they tend to have less content so their rebills will not be as good. We have to keep researching and moving to find the best sites to push... In the end though the paysites win because a lot of webmasters work by the rule of "build it, link it, forget it" or something like that -- so these paysites collect big $$$ from hundreds of thousands of little sites and galleries that get only 5 hits/day ehehe... Not to mention all the thousands of webmasters that try a program and don't make $50 so the check never goes out... On top of that if you saturate the market your search engine popularity index goes through the roof and you get more type-in traffic too. On top of that you have a huge database of webmasters to spam...
All that chump change adds up. Not to mention the intangible benefit of having everyone know who you are. There are dozens of reasons that I can think of why a saturated site will make more money -- and I don't even have a paysite myself! ;)
------------------
...from the nectar of the Bone flows all that clicks...