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Any reasonable well made movie that comes in under ~20 million dollars has a reasonably good chance of making a profit if it can get distributed. Just having people show up to the theater to find out how bad it is will get it to the break even point.
Of course if you are really good, and a total whore, you can sell promotional spots long before the movie is ever released to make sure it makes money. The Cat in the Hat almost didn't have to make any money at the box office to show a profit, thanks to its pre-release whoring.
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