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Bill Murray in my heart because I loved the natural performance. I like those much more than the 'look at me' ones. Penn will most likely get it though unless they are afraid of him giving a political speech.
Depp - I LOVE Depp as an actor and Pirates was fun but it wasn't an Oscar performance. He has done stuff like Ed Wood, Fear and Loathing In Las Vegas, Blow and Gilbert Grape which were much moe worthy. If he wins for Pirates thay are rewarding him for coming 'back' to the mainstream and not doing independent/quirky stuff.
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