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Old 01-15-2004, 02:15 PM  
NoCarrier
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Montreal
Posts: 16,356
What exactly makes for a pandemic?

The CDC lists 5 phases with the first phase having several stages. The complete explanation is here - I'm just posting the URL, then precising the essentials:

http://www.cdc.gov/od/nvpo/pandemics/flu2.htm

1) Phase 0, Prep Level 0: Nothing happening during a current flu
season except for illness due to
known flu strains.

2) Phase 0, PL 1: Isolation of a novel virus in humans with no
evidence of person to person transmission or
outbreak. Each report of a novel virus in
humans is investigated & the next level may be
initiated if warranted.

3) Phase 0, PL 2: 2 or more human infections with a novel virus
have been confirmed. The ability of the virus to
spread between people or to cause serious
disease is still questionable.

4) Phase 0, PL 3: Human transmission has been confirmed
through clear evidence of person to person
spread in the GENERAL POPULATION in the
COMMUNITY, with at least 1 outbreak lasting a
minimum of 2 weeks in 1 country.

5) Phase 1: Status changed from 'Novel Virus Alert' to 'Pandemic
Imminent' as the virus clearly spread efficiently from
person to person. Several outbreaks are seen in at
least one country. There is significant illness &
significant death in at least 1 segment of the
population.

6) Phase 2: The novel virus is causing outbreaks & epidemics in
several countries around the world. Getting to this
stage is rare - it hasn't happened since 1968 HK flu.

7) Phase 3: Flu activity in initially affected countries has ended
but outbreaks of the new virus are occuring
elsewhere in the world. It represents the end of the
first wave & if vax is available, gives us a chance to
'catch up' with the virus & stop the pandemic.

8) Phase 4: Consists of subsequent waves - there may be more
than 1 & they typically occur in 3 - 9 month time
intervals.

9) Phase 5: The end of the pandemic. Illness rates return to pre- pandemic levels around the world. This can take up
to 2 years.


With this crisis, we're at Phase 0, PL 2.
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