Quote:
Originally posted by punkworld
Oh, that's fairly simple. Since by switching, you actually also switch probabilities, it is best to have as small a chance as possible with your last chance, since that will become the chance of losing instead of winning.
With 4 doors, 2 doors being removed and 2 chances to switch, picking one and only taking the last switch would give you a chance of .75 to get the prize (the door you just left had a .25 chance). However, when you take the first switch, your chances increase to .375, and since you'll be switching again, your next switch will only give you a .625 chance.
Increasing your chances when those chances will later turn into the chances of NOT getting the prize is generally a bad idea 
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Do you know of any sites with a discussion or explanation that expands on your post? I don't feel like digging books out of boxes, right now. I understand the principle but I would like to see a more in-depth analysis and I can't find anything but by Bapeswara Rao except binary search algorythms.
SpaceAce