Quote:
Originally posted by Big Monkie
Because iraq/terrorism and the economy are both in a position to only get worse, thats why.
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I can see them going either way. I don't see that the reasons you gave are anything near guaranteed nor are they the only factors to consider in strength of economy & "war on terrorism". The war in Iraq and on terrorism could easily get better. Consider the possible effects of capturing Osama three months before election, for example.
On the economy side, deficit spending often does improve the economy (Keynesian economics). The obvious reasoning is that spending is an increase in the GDP. Every dollar put in the economy is spent many times over (economists call this "money velocity"). For that matter, many economists do predict a better 12 months ahead than behind.
I think that you think Bush will not get elected because you don't like Bush. It's wishful thinking. Sure, many Democrats hate Bush just like Republicans hated Clinton.
That being said, I have no opinion on who will be elected. Too many factors ahead, too much time ahead, we don't even know who Bush will run against, who their campaign manager is, what kind of campaign they will run and so forth, or what the global conditions will be.