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Originally Posted by Idigmygirls
It would take pages to detail the issues with this claim, and I don't feel like getting into a huge debate tonight; but I do want to hit some highlights:
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Great - someone who can actually discuss things rationally on GFY. (No kidding.)
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Originally Posted by Idigmygirls
1) What country would the US stage its troops for a war with Iran? Look at the map. Unlike Iraq, Iran is not accessible to US ground forces or short-range air forces.
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We already have forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. We already have bases there. We would just need to expand them.
From a military standpoint.... This is IDEAL.
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Originally Posted by Idigmygirls
2) Iran has been preparing to repel a US attack that they have believed would be forthcoming for more than 15 years. They have extensive networks of mobile ballistic missiles of all ranges, extensive dug-in defensive positions and the most advanced military in the region (bar Israel).
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Sure sure. No, not really. The Iranian government is not fully in control of it's own military. They have some military forces that do not report to the government itself, and operate completely independent of the government.
The Iranian military is ranked 14 by Global Firepower's 2019 Military Strength Ranking system. This means Brazil has a better / stronger military.
Their air force is horrible. Their best fighters are 33 F14 Tomcats and 25 MiG 29s.... Their "very best" technology in their air force is from the early 1970s....
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Originally Posted by Idigmygirls
3) I've read reports (not going to source this right now) that Iran has in excess of 150,000 missiles. They have massive air defences. They have MOABs.
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Sure sure. They use the "transporter erector launcher" common in the Middle East; Iraq used them too. Truthfully, these were hard to locate and hard to target in Iraq. However, they were completely ineffective. They have limited range, do not do much damage, and very inaccurate.
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Originally Posted by Idigmygirls
4) They have invested heavily in military. The Iran-Iraq war took place beginning in 1980. That's 40 years ago. Iran's military is completely and utterly different than it was back then. It is an advanced and modern military that would also have been capable of destroying Iraq by air in a few weeks.
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Actually, their military hasn't changed much in the past years.
I cannot stress enough that a Middle Eastern country such as Iran going up against a large, modern and highly sophisticated military force such as the United States, Russia, or China would not be much of a fight. Trust me when I tell you the United States has already penetrated Iran's communication infrastructure; We already saw what Israel did to their nuclear program years ago. On day before the first shot is fired their communications network would go down nationwide and they would be unable to communicate at any level.
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Originally Posted by Idigmygirls
5) Iran has "home-field" advantage. The US would be operating a remote war, while also needing to defend against China and Russia on separate fields (Ukraine and Taiwan); and against N. Korea and pressuring Venezuela; and defending troops in Syria and Iraq. This is a very multi-front war. Iran could create chaos from Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Iraq.
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This is very true. However, the United States is very good at fighting wars in foreign countries. We did it in Iraq and Afghanistan and we were very effective at it.
The United States is very capable of fighting a remote war while also defending other interests such as South Korea, China, and Ukraine, etc. We've been doing it for twenty years now.
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Originally Posted by Idigmygirls
6) Iran does not need to defeat the US military. It can defeat the US by blowing up oil production in Saudi Arabia or by blocking the Straight of Hormuz.
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Iran would never really be able to strike back at the United States. This is what makes the United States military special - we have the ability to strike at other countries almost immediately, and other countries do not have the ability to strike back. There are of course exceptions to this. Russia and China would have the ability to strike back, but do they really? For example... If the United States wanted to strike China with airplanes or naval ships, they could do it and do it quickly.... But could China do the same? Could China send fighter planes over the east coast or west coast of the United States? No, they cannot. They also do not have a blue water navy. Russia is a little bit different - They could try to reach the US mainland. They could attack Alaska. But again, no blue water navy.
Oil... Fuck oil. Oil prices have always been set by the Middle East. Let's shut down the entire Persian Gulf. I am so not kidding here. The United States is now the largest producer of oil. We could shut down oil production for all of the middle east and let's see who is going to suffer more - the United States with it's unlimited flow of oil or the Middle East who is unable to meet demand for their own needs no less exports.
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Originally Posted by Idigmygirls
These facts create such problems for the US, that trying to compare victory against Iran with the military defeat of Iraq is pointless. Iran is a much more powerful and potent potential adversary, and it is hubris to believe that they can be defeated without devastating consequences for the USA.
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We had the same exact discussions and debate when we went to war with Iraq - twice. Their military isn't powerful or even an adversary. Iraq, by the way, when we went to war with them, was ranked 4th most powerful in the world.
I cannot stress the difference between the most powerful military in the world vs the 14th most powerful nation. It's like sending a Yugo up against a Ferrari.
I disagree with you.