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Good post OP but there is one other variable that we don't have access to that plays a pretty big part as well.
With "views" there is also a hidden stats for "view time". View time weighs very heavy on how much the "view" counts toward making it trending. The reason for this, is to stop someone from trying to make a vid trend by simply spamming a video link to get views.
The way they filter that is by using the view time stat to know if people are actually watching the video or just clicking to it and closing it because it wasn't good. Meaning "view time" the hidden stat is really more important than just views alone.
Likes have already been confirmed by many youtubers as a key element, but thew view time is the trick that would be hard to get around in order to make a "tend" video. It simply requires good content..
edit.. There is also talk about length of the video mattering as well as some people claim they should be over 10 mins, but IMO it's obvious with music videos being less than that that the 10 min idea is not accurate.
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