GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum - View Single Post - US/China trade surplus increases 17% to world record high of $323 Billion

Idigmygirls · 01-14-2019, 04:35 PM

This is complicated, but the increase isn't real.

Because of the tariffs - which were originally slated to increase from 10% to 25% on ALL Chinese imports on January 1 - companies tried to "front run" the tariffs by importing all the goods they could prior to the end of 2018.

It is true that a 90-day postponement of the increase went into effect, so the rate is still 10% until end of February, but by the time that deal was reached, the imports were already in the US or en route.

Look at the data when they come out for first quarter of 2019 and it is very very likely that there will be a massive downshift in the trade surplus. Imports will be at the lowest levels in decades as inventories are already so oversupplied that retailers have literally had to rent trucks to store what was unloaded from the ships toward the end of December (as almost all warehouse capacity was at 100%)

If the truce doesn't hold and tariffs go up to 25%, that is likely to slow the trade imbalance, but in truth, it will hurt the USA to the benefit of China. I could explain how the Chinese have been winning the trade war, but it's too much for this post...

01-14-2019, 04:35 PM
Idigmygirls Confirmed User Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Vancouver, BC Posts: 498	This is complicated, but the increase isn't real. Because of the tariffs - which were originally slated to increase from 10% to 25% on ALL Chinese imports on January 1 - companies tried to "front run" the tariffs by importing all the goods they could prior to the end of 2018. It is true that a 90-day postponement of the increase went into effect, so the rate is still 10% until end of February, but by the time that deal was reached, the imports were already in the US or en route. Look at the data when they come out for first quarter of 2019 and it is very very likely that there will be a massive downshift in the trade surplus. Imports will be at the lowest levels in decades as inventories are already so oversupplied that retailers have literally had to rent trucks to store what was unloaded from the ships toward the end of December (as almost all warehouse capacity was at 100%) If the truce doesn't hold and tariffs go up to 25%, that is likely to slow the trade imbalance, but in truth, it will hurt the USA to the benefit of China. I could explain how the Chinese have been winning the trade war, but it's too much for this post...