Well that was a quick market peak! Trump shot himself in the foot with the tariffs bullshit.
"That being said, the Buffett Indicator does tend to peak during hot stock markets and bottom during weak markets. And as a general rule, if the indicator falls below 80%-90% or so, it has historically signaled that stocks are cheap. On the other hand, levels significantly higher than 100% can indicate stocks are expensive.
For context, the Buffett indicator peaked at about 145% right before the dot-com bubble burst and reached nearly 110% before the financial crisis."
http://This Favorite Warren Buffett ...rash Is Coming
Without question, Warren Buffett and the rest of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK-A, BRK-B) investment team incorporate many different metrics when evaluating prospective companies to acquire and stocks to buy. However, Buffett himself has mentioned one specific metric as the best indicator of stock valuations, and it has appropriately been nicknamed the "Buffett Indicator" in the investing community. Here's what the Buffett Indicator is, and why it may be signaling that the stock market is a bit overheated.
This is a metric that Buffett uses to get an overall feel for the valuation of U.S. stocks. In fact, he described it as "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" in a 2001 interview with Fortune Magazine.
It's a fairly simple metric to calculate, too. Just divide the total market capitalization of all U.S. stocks by the latest gross domestic product (GDP).
Is it reliable?
To be clear, no stock market metrics are 100% reliable at predicting corrections, crashes, rallies, or stagnant stock markets. After all, if this were the case, wouldn't everyone know exactly when to buy, sell, and hold in order to maximize their profits?
That being said, the Buffett Indicator, while it's not a flawless indicator, does tend to peak during hot stock markets and bottom during weak markets. And as a general rule, if the indicator falls below 80%-90% or so, it has historically signaled that stocks are cheap. On the other hand, levels significantly higher than 100% can indicate stocks are expensive.
For context, the Buffett indicator peaked at about 145% right before the dot-com bubble burst and reached nearly 110% before the financial crisis.
There are two big caveats to realize. First, just because the Buffett Indicator signals that stocks are cheap doesn't mean that they won't get even cheaper. As you'll see in the chart in the next section, the Buffett Indicator didn't bottom out during the financial crisis until it was briefly below 50%. Conversely, just because the Buffett Indicator looks expensive (like it does now) doesn't mean that stocks can't continue to muscle higher.
In a nutshell, the Buffett indicator can tell you the valuation of the stock market in a historical context right now. It doesn't predict tops or bottoms.