Originally Posted by kane

Personally, I don't take turnout to a Trump rally as any indication of how Democrats will do in November. I feel this way for a couple of reasons. First, the midterms are all local and state elections. Trump can and likely will have some endorsement power in places where he is very popular just like someone like Biden or Sanders will in very left leaning areas. Trump has that cult of personality thing down pat and his supporters like to come hear him talk. Obama was packing venues right before the Democrats got their asses kicked in 2010. Which brings me to reason two, 2010. Republicans had no platform. They had no position on issues and not much in the way of organization in 2010. They had just gotten their asses kicked in 2008 and the party was fractured and having trouble even finding common ground. Their only real position that they all agreed on was obstructing Obama and stopping Obamacare. Obama was hovering around a 50% approval rating and the Republicans still flipped 63 seats to take back the House.

Trump's approval rating is lower (although there are still a few months until the election), the Democrats actually gained seats in the House and Senate in 2016, they have been doing well in the special election, and the left hates Trump just as much as the right hated Obama.

To me it will come down to young voters. If they stay home again or again vote for third party candidates, it could get interesting. If they turn out and vote, I think the Dems will flip the House.