Quote:
Originally Posted by Smack dat
I know literally nothing about US politics and I really don't know much about either Trump or Clinton and I can't keep track or follow all the mud slinging accusations.
It seems to me though that Trump has no chance whatsoever of winning. Clinton is a country mile ahead no matter how barmy she might be.
Am I wrong or could Trump still win?
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It would be extremely unlikely if Trump won.
The United States does not have a direct vote for selecting the president. Rather, the Electoral College actually selects the president. When citizens cast their votes, their votes are tallied to select an elector for their voting district. Most states try to award their electoral votes proportionally, but a couple are winner take all states.
For the most part, states get to set up their electoral districts however they would like- Though this is supposed to be done without bias, in reality, many states have such skewed districts that it is possible for only one party to actually win in that state, regardless of how the majority actually votes.
In fact, with the Electoral College, it is very possible to have a candidate receive more votes form citizens, winning the popular vote, but still loose the electoral vote. This happened in 2000 in Bush vs Gore. More people voted for Al Gore overall, but ultimately Bush received more electoral votes and won the presidency.
It is impossible to calculate Trump's chances of winning without some bias. You can't base predictions off of a single poll, rather you need to look at all polling data from various polls, and match that data to statistical models which vary greatly in how accurate they are.
Most voters in the US will always vote democrat or always vote republican, no matter who the candidate is or what platform they are supporting. What usually decides an election is which side can get their supporters to the polls effectively. If you aren't strongly motivated to cast a ballot, it may be easier to stay at home, instead of put up with the hassle of getting out and actually voting.
This only accounts for about a 5% difference, at most. Then, when you factor in the electoral college, realistically only about 2.5% of voters have any real say in the outcome of a presidential election. So the margins between winning and loosing, even in a "landslide" election, are really pretty narrow.
Trying to be fair, looking at polling data and statistical modeling, various election simulations looking at different ups and downs, and modeling based on past elections, Trump has about a 12% chance of winning the electoral college, and thus winning the presidency. This is based on historical models to account for last minute circumstances and how they might shift the polls. Looking only at the popular vote, he has a less than 2% chance of winning that.