Quote:
Originally Posted by kane
Rassmussen is known to slant right. So much so that RealClearPolitics.com doesn't even use them in their RCP average.
Everyone else has Clinton ahead by 5-10 points. Even the LA Times, which just a week ago had Trump at +6 and has been leaning Trump for a long time now, has it even.
But, it doesn't really matter. What matters is the battleground states. It doesn't matter how big a margin Trump wins Oklahoma by, it matters if he wins Pennsylvania and Florida.
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Most everyone else that you mention have been doing heavy oversampling. Sampling should reflect percentages of registered voters which is roughly 26% Republicans 29% Democrats 42% Independents
Just a couple of examples
PID: Dem (no lean) 747
37
%
PID: Ind (no lean) 664
33
%
PID: Rep (no lean) 590
30
%
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=000001...f-f76fbaf20002
ABC news oversampling
Partisan
divisions
are
36
-
24
-
33
percent
, Democrats
-
Republicans
-
independents
, in the full sample, 37
-
27
-
30
among registered voters
.
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-con...16Election.pdf
WAPO
34% of the respondents identifying as Democrats, 24% identifying as Republican, 33% as Independent, 5% as other, and 3% declining to say.
If you look at the 23rd page WAPO/ABC has been oversampling all along
Washington Post-ABC News national poll Sept. 5-8, 2016 - The Washington Post