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You sound capable and dedicated, I think you have a good chance of making them work, even in this climate. If you make a good site that's great for the visitors, and keep feeding it with quality backlinks, it will grow I think.
The question is if it's the right project to invest 3 years into. You have to look 5-10 years ahead. One can still make sales, but the paysite join ratios get worse every year. If you have targeted and/or mass traffic, it's possible to make good money, but each year you'll have to grow traffic at a faster pace than the ratios decline.
Or you could go the traffic selling/popup direction. That's not my thing, and in my opinion, the site won't be a really good one for surfers anymore, and Google might appreciate it less too. But that direction can be more sustainable.
The real question is, wouldn't it be better to invest your time in mainstream, dating, or cams? Those verticals definitely have brighter futures.
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