I think you have a valid point it can be confusing to have any idea how many free will convert.
My opinion is that it really depends on the traffic that you are sending to the program. I have a feeling I know which program you are talking about.
For example if you send TGP traffic and get some free signups, you can't expect the best conversion ratio in the world becuase just like a normal adult site, these people are going to get what they can for free, just like they did off of the TGP. So it will be hard to convert someone who doesn't pay for porn in the first place. Doesn't matter if its personals or an adult site.
But the good part about personals versus your average adult site is that you have more than one chance to impress them. So even if they don't convert off the bat you don't lose them to the next site as many will register for free, then we do the work to convert them for you.
Now what you want to make sure of is that when you do refer a free member that you get credit for life if that person decides to convert later on. I know that when you refer someone we give you credit for them for LIFE, but many sites only do 30 days max. So that should be a deciding factor becase I have seen users that wont convert for up to 8 months. Crazy I know. But if you think about it, at some point in time they are going to be looking to get laid and we're a great tool for that.
"Unless you guys offer us a second signup form for surfers, where they have to pay to join right off the bat?"
Personally I have tried both approaches, the problem with this is that so many sites offer to "browse" for free now. If all the sites went back to you have to pay to join that would be great, but it's not gonna happen.
