1. Non-interactive sites will begin to fail as the "surfers" become more adept with technology -- P2P, Instant Messaging, etc. will dwindle the profits of Bangbus clones in favor of a more personalized experience that can't be duplicated. As my good friend loves to taunt me -- "why would anyone pay for porn?"
2. Music/Movie industry will fight a bloody battle to stop the sharing of content, but eventually they will fail as "the people" will begin to take control of the technology. This was the vision from all the way back when keyboards were a luxury -- and it's slowy taking shape BUT it could take 5 years or 100 years! I think it will come down to the amount of government restriction...
I don't think the die-hard computer nerds will ever be totally restricted -- nobody is going to scan my email and try to decrypt a compressed file that I'm sending a friend. Most people these days don't even bother encrypting anything -- because there's really no need to... that could change in the near future. But this kind of P2P trading doesn't allow for indexing -- the more open the trading system -- the more vulnerable it is to discovery and prosecution... Already some the local campus here has stopped P2P trading with new software designed to block suspicious activities because of legal threats from the music industry. This type of "government intervention" could affect our business strategy. You can imagine that any hacker will have his price -- to be hired by the government, the military, music industry, etc... It's possible that we will plug all the holes and the days of P2P come to an end. It's really an interesting question but eventually it comes down to privacy and I don't think anyone cares if I have FTP access to some pervert's private porn collection...
Some kind of government intervention could possibly result in some kind of cyberpunk future with hackers fighting a silent underground battle... but these underground nerds won't affect business very much if they are trying to remain undetected. I doubt many skilled hackers care if the masses are trading copyrighted files -- so essentially the P2P loophole COULD be closed -- I think... BUT trading files will never stop, so that's why I think interactive sites will dominate... I can see more girls prostituting themselves through webcams for $ -- it will be pimps like TheFLY that will take this to a whole new level.
3. TGP's will die off. If a picture is worth 1000 words, a movie is worth 1000x -- Movie posts will dominate. Personally I havent' surfed a TGP in years for my own personal pleasure -- I surf movie sites... I will plug my friends:
http://www.tinas-movies.com/ http://www.adailymovie.com/ http://www.socalsweets.com/ http://www.hereistheporn.com/ etc... Why surf anything else? These sites will encounter hardships... bandwidth issues, copyright problems, delivery problems -- but the gallery is dead. Nobody gives a shit if a movie comes in 6 pieces or 1 piece if you have a fast enough connection to the internet. As a surfer I'd much rather download a 20 meg movie than a bunch of little clips. And it will just get bigger and bigger -- this is the beginning of where TV will be replaced... Just imagine if Bangbus episodes were free with product endorsements -- fucking a girl in the ass while drinking a Pepsi... that's the future!
4. The lifestyle. The innovators will always stay on the cutting edge and live the fantasy... you can scan GFY for all the old news, but none of the cool stuff ever gets talked about in the open... That's why you need to work your ICQ number -- you are like a hooker with an answering service. The independent webmaster will be a rare animal -- like a sasquatch -- powerful and hidden and supreme... Bearded geniuses that don't give a fuck with quicksilver in their veins and a pornstar on each arm -- that's me!
