Originally Posted by Rochard

I guess the planets are all aligned just right because I have never agreed with you more.

Elections in the United States are won and lost by the people on the fence. Republicans will vote Republican and Democrats will vote Democratic; It's the people on the fence that will decide this.

Right now the candidates are trying to get members of their own party to come over to their side. Once the nominee is selected, they will try to win over the people on the fence and the people from the other side. This is a an odd thing because - for example - the Republican nominee will have to cater his message to Democrats without upsetting the core Republican base (and Democratic nominee will do the same).

The reason why the Republicans lost in 2008 and 2012 was because the people on the fence "wanted change" because the last Republican administration screwed us with the economy.

Likewise, I think the Republicans will loose again this year. A large percentage of Republicans might (eventually) be behind Trump, but I also believe that a unusually large percentage of Republicans will be dead set against Trump. This might not be a huge number, but if 10% of Republicans do not vote Republican it will mean Trump will loose. Combined with the people on the fence being against him, I see this as being a loss for the Republicans.