Quote:
Originally Posted by baddog
Rubio? How did you arrive at that conclusion?
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When the other dropped out, where did their numbers go? Who are they for now? Trumps and Cruz didn't see a rise, Rubio did. Jeb dropped out with 8-10% of the vote. Who do you think those people who used to support Jeb now choose? When Kasich drops, his support also goes to Rubio. That leaves Trump hovering around the same 30%, Cruz at 15-20% and Rubio at closer to 50% of voters.
You don't win a fragmented election by having a small group love you as their first choice, you win fragmented elections by being the most common second choice among voters. Plenty of people want Kasich, Cruz, Paul, Trump, etc... But ask them who their second choice is and almost zero say trump. He is either your first choice or your last choice. That makes the 30% he has now about the limit of all he will ever get, while someone like Rubio will continue gaining momentum by being the second choice of people whose candidates have dropped out.
Trump is leading a marathon by sprinting, that doesn't help you lead at the finish line when it counts.