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The best way is to split test and use $/impression (or secondarily $/click) to compare the performance of sponsors and track it over time. However for this to work you need past experience with them or sufficient volume to get a good data sample quickly. This isn't always possible. Also it tells you little about their longevity or if they will actually pay you in the future.
That said other factors are good too:
1. Pay attention to how the people who own the program act as well as their employees. If they are unprofessional, always defending scumbags and/or seem in a hurry to disparage affiliates then in my experience it's only a matter of time until they screw you. The forums are great for this. Also typically ass kissers are in a desperate financial situation. That is why they need to kiss someone's ass. They are hoping to stay afloat or get thrown a bone.
2. Pay attention to past performance in the industry. Some say you shouldn't look at this but really that is a sign to watch out for whoever is saying this. There is a reason banks use credit checks. Past performance often predicts future performance.
3. This ties in with #1 but it's a great idea these days to introduce yourself to a sponsor you plan on doing significant business with. See how they respond....or these days even if they respond. Non-responders tend to be on auto-pilot or they no longer are treating the affiliate side of the business as a priority. If they blow you off now the chances are great that they will blow you off in the future when times get tougher and payments are due.
4. Simple rule which tends to work very well with everything in my experience: Try to do business with people who actually need you. 9/10 you will be treated far better.
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