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Old 06-03-2014, 05:26 PM  
mineistaken
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Join Date: Apr 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deltav View Post
"a VERY small part of the issue"?

The industry's decline (real or perceived) is *exactly* the reason garden-variety sites aren't being bought and sold for the same prices they were years ago. First, in online adult's heyday you had speculators, investors, get-rich-quick'ers, etc, all over the place who were happy to plunk down money sometimes without doing their due diligence. Those guys were a dime a dozen, they've moved elsewhere now.

Second, there's now an overall uncertainty whether certain business models will even remain viable, and for how long. That's debatable, but the result is people are real conservative about their long-term estimates.

Third, on average the individual webmasters are making less money and there are fewer of them, so less buyers and less $$ in circulation.

Fourth, the affiliate model and market is shrinking and probably dying a slow death.

The 3 month thing was what Amelia said, not me. And I think she was more meaning that past a certain price-point you might as well develop your own site(s), at least when it comes to generic affiliate ones. As she says, established brands and/or good traffic is a different story.

If someone's site TRULY makes 1.5k/month they're probably asking for more than 5k, that was just something the OP mentioned offhand rather than a concrete example.
You state the obvious facts, no need to do that.

I commented about 3 month (or 1,5K - 5K) thing and that in that regard declining industry plays VERY small part. Let me explain in plain examples:

a) STABLE industry. You earn $1000 1st month, $1000 2nd month, $1000 3d month. Stupid to sell for 3 months income if site is genuine.

b) DECLINING industry. You earn $1000 1st month, $990 2nd month, $1980 3d month. Stupid to sell for 3 months income if site is genuine. Almost the same level of stupidity.

That's what I meant when saying that declining industry plays VERY little part in evaluations compared to stable industry because it is not declining that fast.
3 months of income or 1.5K/5K - declining or stable, nobody would sell for that.

So when you see a site selling for 3 months of income, or 1.5K site selling for only 5K - you know this is not a genuine deal. Declining industry or not.

Last edited by mineistaken; 06-03-2014 at 05:30 PM..
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