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2016 will be interesting. Do the voting demographics more or less return to 2004? 2008 and 2012 saw a huge jump in black voters, which went 92% for Obama. Do the voter turnout numbers return to pre-Obama levels in this group?
Women already vote 4% more than men. Do the independents vote for Hillary for the first woman factor? And in enough of a % that it can make up for the reduced black vote?
Youth voters was through the roof in 2008, but dropped by almost 7% in the 2012 election. Many of the youth, college students were all about the young, fresh, and first black candidate Obama in the primaries vs Clinton. Can a 69 year old Clinton capture the imaginations and passions of the youth vote? And anywhere near the 2008 levels?
Romney lost the 4 key swing/purple States by just under 400,000. All States that also saw higher than normal turnout by the black community.
Though the economy, obamacare etc definitely will play a part as always. It really comes down to 5 swing States, and the ability for the candidate to get the superior ground game.
If Hillary can get the youth vote to get into the 43-44% turnout rate, and split the difference of the black vote in 2004 at 60% and the 2012 record turnout of 64.7%, then she will likely be able to win it. 62.5-63% has to be her target here.
If Hillary is smart, she hires almost the entire Obama ground game operation, and leaves the traditional Clinton team mostly on the sidelines.
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