Originally Posted by kane

Historically the opposite party tends to win after one party has held the white house for 8+ years (at least recent history going back tot he 1960's).

There are some things that could make that different this time around. For starters, the country is skewing democrat right now. The current young generation of newer voters are more liberal and left than past generations and the fastest growing segments of the population is among non-whites who tend to vote democrat. Next, the electoral map right now favors democrats. That could change in the next three years, but it will take a big effort for that to happen.

To me the big things that will help determine who wins are:

1. How the economy is doing. If the economy continues to improve the democrats can use that as a positive.

2. Obamacare. It had a shitty roll out and some people hate it, but others like it. The approval ratings for it are slowly going up. In three years it will have been in place for a while and we will have a real taste of how it has affected us. If it seems to be doing fine, it could be an asset for the democrats, if not it will hurt them.

3. Hillary. If she decides to run she will be very hard to beat. Most prominent democrats will likely step out of her way so her primaries could be smooth sailing that she mostly use to get a head start for the general election. She will have Bill in tow and nobody campaigns like Bill. She has a lot of young supporters as the Clintons have shown they can get the young people to the polls.

If the stars align and the economy and obamacare are doing well and Hillary runs she will be nearly impossible for a republican to win. However, if she doesn't run and/or those things are not doing very well, it could be anyone's game.