Quote:
Originally Posted by mineistaken
Main point of OP is that coincidentally his two sale bursts were at the beginning and then after he complained. Combine variance and this and you get very small odds that this was coincidence. That is why he is suspicious, naturally.
Again - I am not suggesting that they are cheating, merely saying that odds are very slim for combination of this variance AND timing (at the beginning + after complaining).
Ratio all in all is very good, so it might be not shaving, but on the contrary - gifting sales to please affiliate.
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I'll admit its a coincidence and somewhat unlikely - but not entirely unheard of.
His volume is so low and when you look at it at a daily basis, yes it seems odd.
However, when you step back and look at the whole picture, his stats seem quite normal at 1:500.
Its like when you go to a roulette table and BLACK comes up like 15 times in a row. It seems odd and the table looks rigged, however, when you look at the spinning pattern over a larger period of time (lets say a full day), then the odds usually come back to approx 50/50.
I think the sales suddenly coming back when he complained is probably a total fluke.
Also, there are other factors that could possibly come into play such as:
He was ranking for a high converting keyword, dropped for that keyword, but then ranked for another non-converting keyword. Thus getting the same traffic but less conversions.
The site could have just come out on the tubes and the scenes people were looking for were TeenCat's latest updates, so when they landed on his site, they saw the scenes were there and followed through with the purchase. Then as time went on, new updates were put up and suddenly the surfers weren't seeing those specific scenes that would have made them signup.
Could be a few other things, I'm just throwing situations I've seen before out in the wind. I have no clue how he promotes his stuff, so I could be completely wrong.... BUT, I still say his volume is too low to jump to any conclusions.