Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentKnight
What expectation for success did Christopher Columbus have?
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A pretty decent chance of success of reaching the Far East as far as he and his navigators and the Queen of Spain were concerned. These were smart people who were experienced with sailing and exploration who made a calculated decision with what they thought was a reasonable chance of success. It wasn't a suicide mission by any stretch of the imagination.
Now it turned out they had miscalculated the circumference of the Earth and didn't realize the distance was so great. Luckily they hit land in the Caribbean before things got too desperate. Once they learned more about the true width of the Atlantic Ocean they were able to make multiple trips back and forth to Europe fairly easily.