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Originally Posted by woj
your whole argument assumes that vast majority of people are unable to do more "advanced" work... I don't buy that, people are just lazy, lack motivation, lack right attitude, etc... perhaps not everyone can become a doctor, but nearly everyone can be trained to perform a relatively "advanced" work...
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It isn't only entire careers, it is also the simpler aspects of complex careers. For example, simple wills, simple incorporation filings and such were a very easy part of a lawyer's job that brought in easy money and less able attorneys made money providing them. Now legalzoom handles all of that for next to nothing.
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for example: imagine some minimum wage worker, you tell him that you will train him for free to become a car mechanic AND guarantee him a $500k/year income... don't you think most people would be able to complete the training and would be able to perform a job of a car mechanic? I'm 100% sure there would be lines to signup for this program, proving that majority of the people are in fact capable of doing more advanced work and are not getting trained for reasons other than lack of ability...
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You won't need car mechanics for the vast majority of the work being done... especially the routine, mundane work. You already don't need nearly as many now as you once did back in the day. Any idea how many oil changes 2 guys at a Jiffy Lube can complete in one day? Simple tasks are already automated, automation starts at the very bottom end and then gradually works its way up to higher and higher levels of functionality.
At the same time, products are being produced to require replacement rather than maintenance. People used to hire a television repairman... now you just buy a new television because the parts and labor would cost more than a new set in most cases. The same is true for virtually every kitchen appliance and may soon become true for cars. A car that costs 10K and works well for 10 years with virtually zero maintenance is not too far off down the road. When it breaks down and needs more than a simple oil change people will get a new one. The 'skateboard power plant' design of hydrogen concept cars are based on the idea that 90% of your car will be 'swapped out' into a new body and interior each time you want a new vehicle.
You are looking at how labor has been your whole life... which is easy to do. Labor will not be the way you are used to, and that change is likely less than 50 years away. Products will be disposable or plug and play, services will be automated (even difficult ones), routine tasks will be done by machines not humans. Even things like driving a car are becoming automated thanks to Google.... once that is perfected, do you have any idea how many teamsters, cabbies, bus drivers, etc will be looking for something else to do?
There are many people out of work right now who have certain skills, a real work ethic, and would have made good employees... in the past. That number will grow rapidly in the future.