View Single Post
Old 05-18-2012, 11:37 PM  
raymor
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,745
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesus H Christ View Post

Greece had a bank run this month as ?6 billion was pulled from local banks. Some will say that's not much, but in the banking world you can loan up to 9x (Fiat) of your deposits. This means ?50 billion in loans will now need to be covered by other deposits. So if bank runs continue, as they surly will, ?300 billion in loans will need to be covered in the coming months by European banks. Greece already owes 133% of its $305.6 billion GDP with compounding interest that they can't even manage to pay now.

So why do they keep throwing money at Greece? Because Greece is at the point where they owe so much they CAN say fuck it and default, bring back the drachma, and recover (better then now) faster with zero and be in the positive within 10 years or be in debt with the EU for the next 100. It's the same with Spain and Italy, on the cusp where it's actually a faster long term recovery to default, then pay all the money owed. Greece knows this and opted to milk the EU like a 21 year old would, maxing out their CC before filing for bankruptcy.

I said this months ago, France is the one truly in trouble as far as the EU. France's stock market is minus -50% in the last 5 years and currently trading at 1997 level. This means all their SM gains in the last 15 years are gone. France is the largest shareholder of Greek, Italian, and Spanish debt, plus with a shitty SM, their economy will also collapse by proxy.

The UK is in far more trouble, but they've manage to always pay their interest payments. The UK GDP is $2.25 Trillion as their external debt $8.9 trillion. The UK GDP yearly gains are 3% as 67% of these profits pay the interest of the debt and not the principle. In short, every British subject owes $143,009 from birth, compared to Americans $47,568.

Although that's bad, other Europeans are totally fucked.

Luxembourg $3,696,467
Ireland $519,070
Netherlands $226,503

So what does all this mean besides we are all fucked? If Greece says fuck it and defaults bank runs continue all across Europe, banks can't loan money with (9x) fake money, and credit market freezes, production slows, spending slows, job loses, foreclosures, property values collapse, GDP decreases, interest on loans don't get paid, countries default, social services stop, crime increases, civil unrest, and finally a type of Martial law.

Or keep giving Greece money and worry later about the inevitable.
That's the best post I've ever seen from you. I didn't know you were that knowledgeable. For those who don't like reading long posts, the Cliff Notes are this - the EU is fucked. Two thirds of the UK budget is wasted paying INTEREST on debt, so they are fucked and mathematically there is basically no way out.
__________________
For historical display only. This information is not current:
support@bettercgi.com ICQ 7208627
Strongbox - The next generation in site security
Throttlebox - The next generation in bandwidth control
Clonebox - Backup and disaster recovery on steroids
raymor is offline   Share thread on Digg Share thread on Twitter Share thread on Reddit Share thread on Facebook Reply With Quote