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Iowa will narrow the field a bit, but historically New Hampshire really matters. In every election since 1948, I think, the nominee took first or second in New Hampshire. So next week instead of nine candidates it should basically be two. Historically, second place in New Hampshire is fine, third place means you're not getting the nomination.
Iowa is less clear cut, but it should help clear up who the leaders are. Historically I think a fourth place finisher in Iowa may have gotten the nomination once.
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