Originally Posted by kane

It will shake things up because the expectation is that Romney or Newt will win that state. Paul can't get any kind of press coverage. If he wins that state he will suddenly be getting a ton of it. In the past two elections we saw Kerry, then McCain both come out of seemingly nowhere to win Iowa and it catapulted them into the lead, got them a ton of free press and helped them raise money. Both ended up winning the nomination.

Paul is off the radar to everyone but his supporters. If he wins Iowa it will be a shock, but also a statement about how some of the voters are feeling right now. Like I said, even if he does get that win I don't think he will win the nomination because he is too honest and has positions that are too far outside the mainstream, but he could cause a shake-up and make it more difficult for the eventual winner.

By "they" I mean mostly Newt, Romney and the RNC.