Quote:
Originally Posted by glamourmodels
LOL. No offense brother but your numbers are way off. Ron Paul in a three way race between himself, Romney and Obama gets 18%, not 5% in major polls. Among Independents alone he kicks the piss out of Obama by 9 points and those numbers are now when he is getting 89 seconds in an hour long debate. If more people could actually hear his message not filtered by the idiot talking heads he would definitely win outright. Personally if he does not get the GOP nod I would prefer him to go Indie as I am a Paul supporter but I am not Republican, I am an Independent myself, so fuck the two party system.
" Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows Paul is leading against President Obama amongst independent voters, 48 to 39 percent. In fact, Paul is the only GOP candidate to beat President Obama amongst independent voters." source |
Here is some stuff I was looking at.
This shows that head to head vs Obama, Paul is down by 8 points and getting around 41% of the vote. Against his other republicans contenders for the nomination he is getting around 7.8% of the vote.
VS the various members of the republican field Obama is hovering somewhere around the 40-50% mark. So we can assume he would get somewhere in that area in the general election no matter who he is up against. If the republican and Paul split the remaining vote that puts him around 20-25% of the vote. That is plenty to get him into the debates, but nowhere near what he would need to win.
Paul's problem is that he is too extreme and too honest. When he says things like our foriegn policey helped cause 9/11 he might be correct, but people don't want to hear that. When he says he wants to shut down five branches of government he might be right, but that scares the shit out of a lot of people. A lot of people say they want change, but really, so long as they are doing okay, they don't want that much change.
I think Paul is a niche candidate. For every person that hears him and thinks he makes good sense there are a lot who thinks he sounds crazy.