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They have about as much of a chance as they would in most businesses... no hands outs, no real walkthroughs... connections help... and of course a bankroll (if they're not an idiot about what they do with it)
Difference is that you can't really go to school for adult work, but I'm sure most schools offer programs now about webmastering in general, most of which can easily be applied here.
Most will fail, few will succeed. Same as always. Starting off in this business typically isn't a 1 year thing anyway, who's to say what will happen or who will be successful in 3-4 years from now. If a newb is resilient he'll have a chance to succeed.
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