I mentioned Latif and multi-decadal oscillations, so it seems relevant to mention a recent prediction by one of the few anthropogenic global warming critics who is publishing papers that can actually be peer reviewed.
The fact that this global warming critic, Syun-Ichi Akasofu, makes an actual prediction is crucial, because science culture works by making predictions, that can then be confirmed or refuted thru experiments and measurements.
This is the prediction - that during the next ten years we will see the temperatures drop from their current rising arc. Take a look at the illustration, it does a pretty good job of presenting his model.
http://www.reportingclimatescience.c...predicted.html
Quote:
Diverging predictionsThe accompanying diagram, from the paper, shows that the linear temperature trend between 1880 and 2000 is a continuation of the recovery from the Little Ice Age, together with the superposed multi-decadal oscillation. It also shows the predicted temperature rise by the IPCC after 2000. It has been suggested by the IPCC that the thick blue line portion was caused mostly by the greenhouse effect, so the future IPCC prediction is a sort of extension of the blue line, according to Akasofu. The diagram assumes that the recovery from the Little Ice Age continues to 2100, together with the superposed multi-decadal oscillation, which would suggest a further 0.5C warming. This view could explain the apparent halting of the warming after 2000 as a result of the impact of multi-decadal oscillations. The observed temperature in 2008 is shown by a red dot with a green arrow.
The implication is that over the next ten years or so there will be a significant and measurable divergence between the IPCC prediction and the the prediction generated by Akasoku's hypothesis of recovery from the Little Ice Age.
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Theres a following prediction, which is that the 4 degree c rise predicted by the IPCC by 2100 will not occur, but instead a .5 c rise will occur. Since most of us will be dead by then, it's hardly a prediction of any use.
However, if, as this guy predicts, the temperature starts to fall or even stay flat in the next ten years, perhaps multi-decadal oscillations will carry enough warmth down into the oceans (hopefully without destanilizing the clathrates, but thats another issue) to counteract the fossil carbon dioxide.
Since there's nothing that can be done about fossil carbon dioxide anyway, another ten years hardly matters.
In ten years I predict that the price of oil will render much of these concerns moot.