The republicans will have a non-politician business tycoon in their primary. Someone with a lot of money and a track-record of doing well 'even in the terrible Obama economy' etc... That person will be a real viable candidate in a general election. They will also have a loony-toon candidate like Palin or the witch from Carolina or someone else who can't find Europe on a map. That person will get a lot of support in the primary but has zero chance of winning a national election.
If the serious candidate wins the primary and the economy is soft Obama loses. If the loony-toon candidate wins the primary OR if the economy is strong, Obama gets reelected.
Unemployment over/under 6.5% is the number to watch.
