Baal

Like many people have said, the roulette ball has no memory. But what does that mean?

Say the roulette table is a fair table (no tricks or flaws cause the ball to fall onto any slot more often than any other slot). Say that there is a one-in-a-billion situation where red was hit 200 times in a row (200 times in a row is realy rare... don't feel like doing the math so I'll just pretend it's one in a billion chance of that happening). Ignoring 0 and 00, what are the odds that the next ball will fall in red after 200 reds in a row? Remember, it's one in a billion that the previous run of 200 reds would happen.

Answer: 50/50 (assuming 1/2 the slots are red and the other slots are black... remember, I'm ignoring the 0 and 00 for now). The ball doesn't give a shit if it had a streak of 200 reds before; it'll fall wherever physics tells it to fall. Thus, the ball has no memory. It's operating on the laws of physics and the randomness that the roulette table introduces on purpose. Runs happen naturally, and runs DO NOT change the probability of a future outcome. Runs can last 2 times, 3 times, 6 times, even 200 times... but each next outcome is not dependant of the previous outcome. Mathmatically, it's called "Discrete Probability" I'd throw up a link, but all of the ones I've found rely on mathematical formulas and not logic to prove their case. I don't think most folks here want to resolve a formula for proof

So if the outcome is 50/50 for red and black, you'd make money if you only bet black and a black streak happened to occur while you were betting. If you bet red while a red streak occured, you'd make money too. So how do casinos make money given these even odds? There *are* no even odds in casinos. Thus the 0 and 00 on a craps table. There are 35 numbers to bet on, and 37 places that the ball can fall into... 35+2 (2= 0 and 00)=37. They typically pay out as if there were only 35 places for the ball to fall into, and they keep the difference when it falls into a 0 or 00. And if they allow you to bet on a 0 or 00, they *still* pay out as if you only had a 1 in 35 chance to win, and not the true 1 in 37 chance. Some casinos are worse, and always pay out as if you have a 1 in 30 chance to win (less of a payout)... which means that the casino pockets over 3 cents for every dollar you bet. Doesn't sound like much, but if you consider the billions of dollars bet in casinos, I'd take 3% of that in a heartbeat.

Slots are even worse; some take over 15% of the money poured into them. Craps and blackjack are better, if you know some "rules" to follow... they can limit your losses to under 1%. But no matter what, unless you know enough to stop gambling when you're ahead, if you play long enough, you *will* lose. It's all a matter of how much you will lose in the long run, based upon a percentage of how much money you put on the table.