the affiliate model will slowly start to dissipate, but not completely go away... yet most of the people here will be fucked.
new porn always has to be made, but its just now finding a buyer. after a while people will get tired of beating off to the same content and start looking elsewhere, but right now there is an extreme surplus of content out there, so wait about 3-5 years until all the companies now are out of business and new ones roll in.
it will only take one big player in the industry to change things, as in limit how you can get and view their content and who can promote it.
my
affiliates will have to purchase content from providers to put on their sites (tubes, tgps, blogs, etc.) and that will wipe out about 98% of all webmasters, then it will leave the seriously players left.