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Originally Posted by wig
These are open to argument.
Consumer credit has declined precipitously since 2007.
M3 + credit peaked in 2007 and turned negative in 2009 and is declining. This is not inflationary. see chart at: http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html |
Interesting, I was unaware of specific numbers for M3 since the government removed that from reporting. However, I AM looking at fed/treasury total money and that is undoubtedly rising. Meanwhile, you're speaking of deflation while it seems like it's pretty much disinflation, which this graph states. Deflation would be taking it to the extreme.
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Yes, if the US Gov't defaults on its' debt I will be royally screwed. I won't be alone. Of course, this is unlikely to happen overnight if at all.
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Overnight? No. But I'm looking at that as the most likely scenario from all of this deficit spending.
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In my scenario, cash is king. Short-term T-bills are cash equivalents. I'm confident I'll receive the cash at maturity. I'll continue to roll them over. I'll do something different with that cash once we have run the course (to an extent more in alignment with where you are now). I'll also be buying certain stocks at this point as my scenario would place them at extreme discounts.
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Interesting. For me, gold and silver are king. Betting against fiat currency has huge advantages, especially in a double dip recession/depression.