And it will not be in the US but we will be affected. It also depends on if you believe James Chanos too. He is the guy that forecast Enron's demise as well as other big companies like Tyco. His specialty is betting against companies he thinks cook their books and he is an expert at digging through financials to see what doesn't add up.
He is now betting that China is cooking their books and that the bubble in China is about to burst. He also claims their economic growth statistics are fudged too and that the Chinese government is over extended way more than we can conceive. All in all, he thinks China is a house of cards ready to fall.
I'm not sure if he is 100% right but it is hard not to listen to him based on his track record.
Reported on Yahoo today - "A newspaper reported that some Chinese banks were ordered to stop lending for the rest of January after exceeding credit limits."
Here is the Chanos article from the New York Post -
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/bu.../08chanos.html