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I'm not sure how people estimate retention exactly...but for my site I calculate each month like this:
Total Members on 1st
+
New Signups During Month
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Total Possible Members
then I take the:
Total Possible members
divided by
Total Actual Members on 30th
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Retention ratio
My personal ratios range between 69% to 78%, but that's for an AVS site which tend to retain better than paysites. I still have a handful of members from the very first month I opened my site on Pro Adult over a year ago.
Hope that helps!
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