Quote:
Originally Posted by ADL Colin
1. According to the national association of realtors the median home price bottomed in january, 2009. I'll take that as a win as I said between December and March - though I guess you might still think there's another leg down. I don't. Thoughts?
2008 Jun r 215,000
2008 Jul 210,100
2008 Aug 203,200
2008 Sept 191,400
2008 Oct 186,400
2008 Nov 180,300
2008 Dec 175,700
2009 Jan 164,800
2009 Feb 168,200
2009 Mar 169,900
2009 Apr 166,600
2009 May r 174,700
2009 Jun p 181,800
2. Did GDP bottom between April and June, 2009? Quite possibly. The forecast for the immediate quarter is +2-3%. Just a forecast and still remains to be seen but I think I'll be close anyway. Looks to me like the bottom will be either June or July.
3. I was definitely wrong about the stock market by 3 months and 10.1%. It dropped another 10% below the December low in March. But you call bottoms to within 3 months and 10% you'll make a killing. My entire portfolio is up over 100% in the past 12 months. Made a HUGE killing in WFC, IR and AXP. I still can't believe WFC was selling for single digits. Insanity! People really thought WFC was going out of business. No, no and no. Buffett was right. WFC was a gem. Roubini made me a fortune by scaring that price down. Thanks, dude!
4. Will unemployment bottom between October and December 2009? I'm still sticking with that one. What's the most recent consensus? Anyone know? I have to check.
I think the general outline of what was going to happen and the general timeline was pretty obvious to anyone with a solid knowledge of the history of US recessions and bear markets. History really does rhyme - to within 10% and a few months anyway. Unfortunately for most, fear overwhelms their decision making and they sell stocks when they should be buying.
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national association of realtors? hahahah they been saying for a long time "thats it its coming back" ever hear guys from remax etc on cnbc? for 12 months now they saying they starting to see massive buying all over etc just to get others to buy.
See their tactic would work if the banks didnt want 20%+ down payment and great credit now, but many want to buy they simply cant.
Right now issues are simple, no fucking job, everyone says 400,000 new unemployed easy, but these are humans many with families.
And to see car companies having a spike because the gov gives people money to buy them? What will happen in a year from now?
Everything so far done has been band aids, its pathetic when good days in the market make people say ok great its all good now, problem solved.
The day that we start seeing more people being hired than fired than you know we are on a real road to recovery, everything else does not matter.
Id love to see this turn around as much as the next guy, but I know bullshitting myself and thinking positive and not looking at facts is good for high school girls but not in the real world.
Every industry is seeing massive drops in sales (except adult affiliate sites desperate for affiliates and car dealers because gov. is giving people nice cash to buy them).
Dropping dates and times when things will go good or bad is a fools game.