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kane · 07-08-2009, 01:24 PM

I have said all along and still maintain that the 2012 presidential election is all up to Obama. If things are going well and he has high approval ratings he will get re-elected and it won't matter who the GOP run. It is very difficult to beat an incumbent president, it is nearly impossible if that president is doing well and has a high approval rating. If he is doing well and has high approval ratings I won't be shocked to see a lot of the heaver hitters choose not to run. They will let some lesser candidate throw himself on the sword.

That said if things aren't going well he could be vulnerable. If the economy is still in the shitter still they could go after him on that, but there is still a large perception that it was Bush and the republicans that caused the economy to collapse so they will have to overcome that. If he passes a health care bill that is terrible and is going to spiral us into hopeless debt he could be vulnerable.

If Obama is vulnerable it will be a close election, but look at 2004. We were stuck in a war in Iraq and it looked like Bush had no plan of how to get us out. The economy was on the decline and Bush's approval ratings were pretty low and he still won re-election. You might say it was because Kerry was a weak opponent and that would be part of it, but the incumbent always has a huge advantage because you know what you are getting with him.

Still, I don't see Palin as being able to win the republican nomination, much less the presidency. I think she is too far to the right. I see her as someone like Huckabee. She will do well in the bible belt states, but eventually you have to leave those states and move on to the more progressive states and she will struggle there. She already has the stench of a loser from the McCain campaign and she has a terrible image among independents both of those things will be huge hurdles to overcome.

I actually think she is hoping that the current Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski runs for governor then Palin will run for that senate seat. If she can win that will put her in Washington with all the power brokers and in closer proximity to a lot of states that she can start visiting regularly. It will give her more experience and in 6 years when her terms is coming an end she runs for president in 2016.

07-08-2009, 01:24 PM
kane Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: portland, OR Posts: 20,684	I have said all along and still maintain that the 2012 presidential election is all up to Obama. If things are going well and he has high approval ratings he will get re-elected and it won't matter who the GOP run. It is very difficult to beat an incumbent president, it is nearly impossible if that president is doing well and has a high approval rating. If he is doing well and has high approval ratings I won't be shocked to see a lot of the heaver hitters choose not to run. They will let some lesser candidate throw himself on the sword. That said if things aren't going well he could be vulnerable. If the economy is still in the shitter still they could go after him on that, but there is still a large perception that it was Bush and the republicans that caused the economy to collapse so they will have to overcome that. If he passes a health care bill that is terrible and is going to spiral us into hopeless debt he could be vulnerable. If Obama is vulnerable it will be a close election, but look at 2004. We were stuck in a war in Iraq and it looked like Bush had no plan of how to get us out. The economy was on the decline and Bush's approval ratings were pretty low and he still won re-election. You might say it was because Kerry was a weak opponent and that would be part of it, but the incumbent always has a huge advantage because you know what you are getting with him. Still, I don't see Palin as being able to win the republican nomination, much less the presidency. I think she is too far to the right. I see her as someone like Huckabee. She will do well in the bible belt states, but eventually you have to leave those states and move on to the more progressive states and she will struggle there. She already has the stench of a loser from the McCain campaign and she has a terrible image among independents both of those things will be huge hurdles to overcome. I actually think she is hoping that the current Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski runs for governor then Palin will run for that senate seat. If she can win that will put her in Washington with all the power brokers and in closer proximity to a lot of states that she can start visiting regularly. It will give her more experience and in 6 years when her terms is coming an end she runs for president in 2016.