Flash will never be replaced
We do a lot in Flash engineering, in fact we deployed one of the 1st full Flash version of a live cam platform which we started 4 years ago. Personally to early but that was our beginners fault when we started our business.
Back then everyone was spitting out Java push streams while we were struggling and coding in Flash Comm server / AS2.
About the future of technology usages, Flash/Flex/Air will be adapted by more companies because now with Flex Builder / Flash Catalyst you can create real applications and it easier to learn to develop or integrate artwork.
I also think that AIR will have a big impact on the way software (SaaS) will be integrated on the consumers desktop or used in the corporate world.
Take a look at TweetDeck (AIR Twitter desktop app) or
www.photoshop.com (online version of Photoshop) to have a glue what you can do with Flash/Flex engineering now a days. These are just a few examples of the many you can find online.
For my own activities and new projects I will stick to Flash/Flex/AIR technology. In fact we are now building a next generation live video chat platform / affiliate program were we use this technology.