Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDoc
When people brag about 50% retention, it's trial to conversions.. When they talk about rebill %'s, it's first months sales.
Just because I have 4 guys join, 3 cancel, that appears to be a 25% rebill rate, but if that one guy rebills 9 months.. my retention rate isn't 25%. Your graph doesn't factor in the compounding rebills, which are not a steady 50% for any company.
Time and rebill cycles are a factor in the retention rates of sites. And with time, you should convert people to money values.
If you want to use 50% retention numbers, you would use sales+rebills vs. the cancels after the day ends. If you can keep your cancels 50% or less of your sales+rebills, you are growing.
But rebills are king  And we aren't anything like the mainstream business... |
ok, back from dinner.
So as I said above, I was talking about rebilling, basically the retention rate thru billing cycles, hence why I used a fixed amount of new sales for ease of visualization of the retained amount of members. Of course this is a great simplification and there are a few factors I'm leaving out of the picture, but they won't affect the results greatly. Anyway that steady 50% will include members that rebill once and members that rebill forever. if you take a closer look, I'm doing the same as when you say "If you can keep your cancels 50% or less of your sales+rebills, you are growing." Hence the 51% ratio, since 50% (or less) will take you to a virtual no growth. Again, assuming you have a fixed amount of sales. You'll be growing if you have more sales, you'll be losing if you have less.
Anyway, barring some translation issues on my side, I said (or try to said) exactly the same you're saying. The only thing I don't agree is with your last sentence. Or better put, I agree to some extent, however the same psychology, marketing, research, compulsions and specific tools (translated to adult if needed) applies equally to any niche where the audience is shared between adult, mainstream or whatever.
Note that I make a difference between markets, since there's another (REALLY BIG) issue no one gives a damn: regionalization (let alone age and genre). Take a look at the image below:
If you ever readt GFY (which I know you do) you should have noticed people saying Asian traffic is worthless. Exactly. The biggest market in the world is WORTHLESS while US (the 4th -FOURTH- adult market) is the one to aim.
Take a look at this:
Quote:
2006 Worldwide Pornography Revenues
Country Revenue
(Billions) Per Capita Notes
China $27.40 $27.41 1
South Korea $25.73 $526.76
Japan $19.98 $156.75
US $13.33 $44.67
Australia $2.00 $98.70
UK $1.97 $31.84
Italy $1.40 $24.08
Canada $1.00 $30.21
Philippines $1.00 $11.18
Taiwan $1.00 $43.41 1
Germany $.64 $7.77 1
Finland $.60 $114.70 1
Czech Republic $.46 $44.94 1
Russia $.25 $1.76 1
Netherlands $.20 $12.13
Brazil $.10 $53.17 1
Other 212 Unavailable 2
$97.06 Billion
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Let's talk about genres:
Quote:
Adult Internet Pornography Statistics
Men admitting to accessing pornography at work 20%
US adults who regularly visit Internet pornography websites 40 million
Promise Keeper men who viewed pornography in last week 53%
Christians who said pornography is a major problem in the home 47%
Adults admitting to Internet sexual addiction 10%
Breakdown of male/female visitors to pornography sites 72% male - 28% female
Women and Pornography
Women keeping their cyber activities secret 70%
Women struggling with pornography addiction 17%
Ratio of women to men favoring chat rooms 2X
Percentage of visitors to adult websites who are women 1 in 3 visitors
Women accessing adult websites each month 9.4 million
Women admitting to accessing pornography at work 13%
Women, far more than men, are likely to act out their behaviors in real life, such as having multiple partners, casual sex, or affairs.
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So yes, mainstream adult could have told anyone here how wrong they were about regional markets, since it's about the same share mainstream markets had for the same countries.
And yes, rebilling is king
