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You can have a successful blog with the default, a non-exclusive, or an exclusive, it all depends on what your expectations are. If you plan on investing a serious amount of time in your project custom is always best. And by custom it could be something as simple as the default theme altered to fit your needs.
The problem is most people don't understand most issues with many themes. When we originally started blogs we used non-exclusive themes and found bounce rates at upwards of 70-80%. When we began using our own customs, such as those at BlogBlowout, we saw bounce rates averaging around 15-25%.
People can talk smack on other designs all they want, but the reality is that they usually don't know their ass from a hole in the ground in regards to what works and what doesn't.
Best thing to do is run tests yourself and find out what's going to work for your project and ignore all the haters.
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Avalanche
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