Quote:
Originally Posted by xxxdesign-net
You talk like certain economists talked in 2007 and early 2008 who were looking at the numbers and claimed the US economy was strong and those who talked about a recession were wrong... GDP numbers dont tell the entire story about the state of an economy... Read the quotes I highlighted... Read over the word "illusory" a few more times... and this one, "what many economists at the time saw as an economic miracle"
Are you blaming Ron Paul for not forseeing a miracle?!!
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You're right. We should look at a lot more than just GDP. 1987 not only brought strong GDP growth but strong corporate profits and strong improving employment numbers. Corporate profits in 1987 were up 15% over 1986 with each quarter stronger than the one before. Not just in the US either. Corporate profits were up 21% worldwide in 1987 over 1986.
It is only true that the 1988 economy was
slightly stronger than expected but certainly not a "miracle". Many economists thought that the '87 stock market crash would shave about 1% off GDP. Nowhere near a recession and of course as we now know it never materialized anyway.
Here's an article from "The Economic Review" published at the end of '87.
http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/ECONR...7/4q87cacy.pdf
"The US Economy continued to grow in 1987 as the current business cycle expansion extended into its fifth year, making it the longest peacetime economic upturn in U.S. history". Paul missed widely on that one.
Although the paper expected sluggish growth in the first half of 1988 overall they predicted continued growth. They wrote "a balanced assessment of the economic prospects for 1988 indicated continued expansion is likely".
Economic forecasting is a fool's game.