Quote:
Originally Posted by xxxdesign-net
To quote you, you said he said "in a few years" ...
Interesting article here:
http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclop...980s-recession
"
On Black Monday of October 1987 a stock collapse of unprecedented size lopped twenty-five percent off the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The collapse, larger than that of 1929, was handled well by the economy and the stock market began to quickly recover. However the lumbering savings and loans were beginning to collapse, putting the savings of millions of Americans in jeopardy.
The panic that followed lead to a sharp recession that hit hardest those countries most closely linked to the United States, including Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. The economies of Europe and Japan were hurt, but not as badly. The US economy continued to grow as a whole, although certain sectors of the market such as energy and real estate slumped.
The first burst of the recession was short-lived, as fervent activity by the government leading up to elections in both the United States and Canada created what many economists at the time saw as an economic miracle a growing consumer confidence and increased consumer spending almost single handedly lifted the North American economy out of recession.
It soon turned out that the quick recovery was illusory, and by 1989 economic malaise had returned. For the next several years high unemployment, massive government deficits, and slow GDP growth affected the United States until 1992 and Canada until 1995. "
Its official, Ron Paul is a fraud, he couldnt give out an exact date and is wrong on a few details... All other great economists are always spot on! Lets praise them and give out a few names can we? lol |
So Ron Paul's prediction in 1983 that a recession was coming was really the one that started July 1990?
http://www.nber.org/cycles/
Oh, come on. There were 20 recessions in the 20th century. One every 5 years. It was 7 years from Paul's prediction until the next recession. Just at random you would do better than that. Paul was wrong in '83.
Unemployment in 1989 was never higher than 5.4%. It is quite obvious that the recession started in July of '90 when unemployment started trending upward. not in 1987. Not in 1989.
Let's not forget the 1990 recession was one of the shortest and weakest on record; lasting only 8 months. As far as 1987 the US of course never went recessionary. In fact unemployment fell pretty much in a straight line from 1983 to 1990 and it is clear as to why the NBER choose July 90 for the start of the short, weak recession of 1990
Unemployment rates:
1983-01-01 10.4
1983-02-01 10.4
1983-03-01 10.3
1983-04-01 10.2
1983-05-01 10.1
1983-06-01 10.1
1983-07-01 9.4
1983-08-01 9.5
1983-09-01 9.2
1983-10-01 8.8
1983-11-01 8.5
1983-12-01 8.3
1984-01-01 8.0
1984-02-01 7.8
1984-03-01 7.8
1984-04-01 7.7
1984-05-01 7.4
1984-06-01 7.2
1984-07-01 7.5
1984-08-01 7.5
1984-09-01 7.3
1984-10-01 7.4
1984-11-01 7.2
1984-12-01 7.3
1985-01-01 7.3
1985-02-01 7.2
1985-03-01 7.2
1985-04-01 7.3
1985-05-01 7.2
1985-06-01 7.4
1985-07-01 7.4
1985-08-01 7.1
1985-09-01 7.1
1985-10-01 7.1
1985-11-01 7.0
1985-12-01 7.0
1986-01-01 6.7
1986-02-01 7.2
1986-03-01 7.2
1986-04-01 7.1
1986-05-01 7.2
1986-06-01 7.2
1986-07-01 7.0
1986-08-01 6.9
1986-09-01 7.0
1986-10-01 7.0
1986-11-01 6.9
1986-12-01 6.6
1987-01-01 6.6
1987-02-01 6.6
1987-03-01 6.6
1987-04-01 6.3
1987-05-01 6.3
1987-06-01 6.2
1987-07-01 6.1
1987-08-01 6.0
1987-09-01 5.9
1987-10-01 6.0
1987-11-01 5.8
1987-12-01 5.7
1988-01-01 5.7
1988-02-01 5.7
1988-03-01 5.7
1988-04-01 5.4
1988-05-01 5.6
1988-06-01 5.4
1988-07-01 5.4
1988-08-01 5.6
1988-09-01 5.4
1988-10-01 5.4
1988-11-01 5.3
1988-12-01 5.3
1989-01-01 5.4
1989-02-01 5.2
1989-03-01 5.0
1989-04-01 5.2
1989-05-01 5.2
1989-06-01 5.3
1989-07-01 5.2
1989-08-01 5.2
1989-09-01 5.3
1989-10-01 5.3
1989-11-01 5.4
1989-12-01 5.4
1990-01-01 5.4
1990-02-01 5.3
1990-03-01 5.2