To all the pussies out there (no offense), thinking the war is already too long and claimed too many lives, and to all other people out there as well... Here is my 2 cents for you about what is war and what I predict is going to happen next in Iraq.
1. Expect 10 casualties a day in average on the allied forces side. Expect 100-150 casualties a day on the Iraqi side (depends what you count) in average (not including civilians). I hope that there will be less of this on each side - but hope is just that... hope. The high number of allied casualties per day is a result of mainly points #5 - #7
2. Expect a 6 months war. The 2-3 first months will be aimed at crushing the Iraqi central command. The rest 3-4 will be to suppress opposition and resistance.
that two factors result in an estimated 1800 allied forces dead and about 18,000-27,000
3. The fighting will continue through guerilla fighting even after the official end of the war, but that is irrelevant part of the process. That resistance will die over time (I predict additional 6 months after the war end) and will disperse itself due to lack of interest of te opposing forces. There will be even longer term opposition but it will be marginal and will be against the new Iraqi leadership rather than against allied forces which will over time leave Iraq.
4. Expect zero mercy to allied forces POWs. To all the pussies out there ? this is Iraqis not Englishmen. Executions and torture there is considered fun. If you can?t digest it ? go back to listening to Britney Spears. Don?t expect to see too many of the POWs alive again. Some will, but I don?t pity the lives they will have after the war.
When Allied forces arrive Bagdad, which is their main target since it will be the center of war and is the stronghold of the Iraqi central command they will face the following?
5. on every corner there will be booby-traps and mines. The allied forces will be shot at or bombed in every second corner. Bagdad is very similar in structure to a refugee camp ? narrow streets. Remember Israel ? Jenin Palestinian tactics? You will see a replay of that in Iraq.
6. The desire of the allied forces to resolve the war ?efficiently? by bombing the hell out of Bagdad to avoid casualties will cost them highly in lives of soldiers. That will not stop the Iraqis from complaining of ?massacre? that the allied forces commit (see point #7)
7. Iraqi soldiers will adopt the following two tactics. The first is false surrenders with explosive-belts or guns. The second ? suicide bombers charging allied forces. Reminds you of the Palestinian tactics? Not surprisingly so. You thought the Iraqi regime will respect codes of war? Your awakened by now? The effect of these two issues will make it harder for the allied forces to accept surrendering forces. Remember the blind-folded, tied-up captives by Israeli-defense-force? You will see that too in Iraq.
8. The Iraqis will use the ever more effective ?massacre? and ?humanitarian disaster? tool for PR to win points in the weak western world (as if ?humanitarian disaster? is something the Iraqi leadership gives a damn about anyway). I predict you will see condemnation propositions on the UN against what is happening in Iraq (like the UN did not approve sanctions which were humanitarianly bad enough ? plain hypocrisy). Remember Israel?Jenin fabricated claims? You will see a replay of that in Iraq. You will see pictures of so called humanitarian disaster and innocent casualties (which no doubt will happen) blown out of proportion by the media into a prime-time scale ? so it will be interesting enough to watch (sick but true).
9. In Bagdad ? the allied forces will adopt the following combat method (to some extent): Wall to wall progress (IDF invention) ? where they will advance through people?s houses by tearing down internal walls instead of going through the streets. Not nice - but life saving.
10. The war will finally be won by the allied forces (surprise, surprise). Some will say it?s not a victory. Some will say the victory is pointless. Some will say the victory was too costly. Then again ? most of those you will hear saying that are western people living and capable of speaking their mind just because their army was ?vicious? enough to protect them thus-far. (Its fun to bash the ones that see/have no choice but protecting you anyway)
To all those that thought that inspections or diplomacy are useful tools with the Iraqi regime? I hope you are awakened by now.
To all those who thought that sanctions will impose hardship on the Iraqis and will cause their leadership to stop arming and buy food with the oil money? I hope you are awakened by now. The Iraqi leadership as you can see (if you care looking) couldn?t care less about the innocent poor Iraqi (especially the Shias).
To all those who thought innocent Iraqis will not die? I hope you are awakened. It?s sad but it?s inevitable. The only effective way to avoid killing innocent Iraqis (directly) is not go to war. Then again ? many will die by the hands of Saddam and out of poverty and hunger even without war.
These are all my predictions. Not necessarily my hopes or desired. I hope the war will take 6 days with no more casualties, concluded by Saddam surrendering, turning his country into a proud and enlightened democracy, opening super-chains of K-marts and McDonalds (I hate McDonald) supplying his people with workplaces and cheap (junk) food and finally leap towards the 21nd century with great medical and scientific research and leading the world into aerospace research and conquering of the galaxy.
I am not a Britney Spears fan though ? so I know its not going to happen.
This is WAR, not a video game! You don?t press ?Replay? if you die!
If it?s too tough for you to digest ? grow up, or shut down the TV.
The alternative of leaving in a world full of dangers and fears is not a good alternative. It may feel better in the very short term though but so does Heroin or suffocation during sex.
