I can see why people would think that the current CPA model that programs and affiliates have would change, but it won't eliminate affiliates. I think people try and turn the word affiliate into something it is not.
Affiliates are publishers, plain and simple. They have traffic and programs are paying for it. The current setup uses a CPA mode. In other industries we see CPC or CPM models for purchasing advertising. All programs are doing is purchasing advertising from a publisher because it makes them money.
Programs will never stop buying advertising. Sure they might create their own, but they will always be willing to buy advertising if the price is right. I think we'll see a shift away from the CPA model that is currently dominating the adult industry. I think we'll see more monthly ad buys or CPM based advertising.
I guess what I'm saying is that as long as someone has quality traffic that can make money, someone will buy it. As long as an affiliate/publisher/whatever you want to call them can obtain that traffic, they will be around.
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