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One problem is the nature of the affiliate game: there are not contracts or committments and traffic levels and quality are impossible to predict (at least from the program's perspective).
More realistic I think would be a sign up bonus structured on hitting sales quotas. "new affiliates get $500 free after their first $1,000 in sales" This guarantees that the affilliate has links up, has reasonable traffic levels beyond 75% of the dabblers out there, and has some skin in the game before getting paid for nothing.
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